- Seminar
- 23th November at 2:00 pm
Founder of South Pennine Community Transport Kevin Carr asks what opportunities AI can bring to the bus industry.
For years now, whenever I talk to anyone in the bus industry one big subject has dominated conversation – franchising! But now, more frequently topics around future technology and artificial intelligence have become a big subject of discussion.
AI isn’t exactly brand new, large operators have been using AI resources for a little while now, particularly around scheduling. Most franchising authorities are doing so too, or say that they intend to do so at the appropriate moment. Whilst scheduling isn’t the only platform of AI resource to be deployed, it’s where I’ll begin.
Traffic patterns, peaks and bottle necks are a schedulers nightmare, and it is becoming more difficult to predict and navigate hotspots. So surely AI is the answer to this in working out complex data and spotting patterns and trends to deliver a schedule that is robust? I am not certain that it is. Recently a bus route not far from where I live underwent a comprehensive timetable change. Upon inspection of the new timetable, it was clear that AI had been used to develop the schedule – end to end journey times are significantly different at different times of the day and night, there’s no longer a tidy clockface timetable, and so on. All signs of AI involvement.
I thought about how this would work and reluctantly I concluded that I could swallow the erratic timetable if it meant it was reliable. Nearly three months on, and sadly this isn’t the case – the same issues are being faced, and the service is just as unreliable at the same point in the cycle as before. This is just one example, I know. Our congestion and traffic flow problems may well just be too complex and unpredictable even for the best AI tech. Indeed, I recall having a conversation with a contact of mine at a large operator recently who told me that their data and analysis couldn’t point to a set Monday to Friday timetable that was consistent throughout the week.
Bus priority is the answer, not AI – I hear you cry! Indeed, but AI will firmly be a part of traffic management and bus priority schemes in the future.
So surely AI is the answer to this in working out complex data and spotting patterns and trends to deliver a schedule that is robust? I am not certain that it is.
Whether we like or loath the prospect of AI, it is here to stay.
Kevin Carr founded South Pennine Community Transport in 2015 and the company has grown to provide services across a large area of South and West Yorkshire, Derbyshire and Greater Manchester. He is a member of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, and has worked in public transport in one way or another since the days of deregulation, having started off in his early 20s as a driver for Yorkshire Traction, moving to a supervisor’s role at K-Line before becoming Commercial Projects Manager for Yorkshire Tiger.
There are other emerging AI platforms that may help in other areas of the industry. Much sharper and insightful apparatus will offer service planning and commercial development projects a boost in understanding travel patterns and behaviours much better. Integrating internal systems that manage human resources, health and safety and fleet management may offer some efficiency. More accurate data and less time understanding analytics manually could make improvements faster and better, with perhaps more cost-effective applications becoming available off the shelf in time to come.
Demand responsive transport (DRT) has seen many projects either under-used or fail altogether over the years. Some local authorities are now looking to AI to help them have another look at DRT. The tech looks at where there is scope to harmonise DRT zones with scheduled services and identify scheduled fixed routes where demand responsive elements could be introduced. It will be interesting to see what these applications produce.
And of course, our franchising authorities will be deep into AI tech with service performance analytics not just for service efficiency and development, but also in contract management compliance with franchise operators. One opportunity franchising does offer is the chance to bring all this under one umbrella.
Whether we like or loath the prospect of AI, it is here to stay. We must hope that its platforms offer help, not hindrance – at a sensible cost that everyone can manage.
I did take the time to speak to a small operator nearby who I asked about future tech and AI. Most of his response was unprintable and he told me that the only thing he had to discuss was the threat of franchising to his business. Well, there you go; franchising is still the hot topic for sure. But more and more people will be talking about the pros and cons of AI in the bus sector in the months and years to come.
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